Novaspace, the leading space consulting and market intelligence firm, has released the 13th edition of its Prospects for Maritime Satellite Communications report, assessing the key trends and developments impacting this rapidly growing market.  

As the number of vessels using satcom services grows to 125,000 by 2034, reliance on GEO capacity will decrease. Vessels are moving their primary bandwidth from GEO to NGSO connectivity. This switch to NGSO bandwidth will fuel a 7-fold growth from 286 Gbps in 2024 to 2 Tbps through the decade, transforming the market.

“This major shift was already visible in 2024 as Starlink made its mark on the market,” says Vishal Patil, project manager at Novaspace. “Starlink disrupted the maritime satcom market via its official service launch, influencing the direction of the market in almost every way. They can certainly expect to continue enjoying their first-mover advantage, at least in the short term”.

Consequently, the NGSO capacity market share is set to grow from 85% in 2024 to approximately 98% by 2034. The market share of NGSO-based service revenues will also increase, reaching 93% by decade’s end. Starlink’s market strategies are redefining the competitive landscape and challenging established GEO player positioning; however, GEO use will not disappear. Novaspace notes that large vessel operators are hesitant to rely solely on NGSOs for their connectivity needs. These players are choosing to use existing GEO solutions in partnership with NGSO connectivity options, shifting established market dynamics and opening new opportunities. 

Looking ahead, as addressable market growth accelerates, service revenues will reach $3.3 billion by 2034, supported further by increases in some service ARPUs. Over the last year, vessel operators streamlined previous budget increases by negotiating situation-specific service contracts. However, Novaspace expects the situation to stabilize as the cost of ownership of the satcom solution decreases and new market “norms” solidify. With opportunity in the maritime satcom market skyrocketing, players must realign strategic focus to meet demand and secure their competitiveness.

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